"With regard to Duke's YTD non-conference schedule I would not call Northwestern and Penn weak."

Add in Villanova,Presbyterian,William and Mary, Elon, Davidson, Cambell, ECU and its a pretty weak non conference schecule. Does not seem like a team that regards itself as a to 20 team that wants to be challenged.
UVA plays Navy,Princeton, Loyola, JMU,Maryland , PSU as a comparison of a team in the same conference.