BOTC - US Lacrosse Community Forum Forums NORTHEAST LACROSSE BOTC MAIN FORUM (LI, CT, WC) Hot Bed Changes : LI Suffers Recruiting Drop, NJ Sees Growth

On January 30th, an article was circulated in a major publication citing that recruitment from traditional hotbed locations had dropped with the entering collegiate Class of 2017.



While New [lacrosse], Pennsylvania, Maryland, New Jersey, Massachusettes, Connecticut and Washington DC account for 57.9% of the current Division I players, the incoming class only sees 54.8% of players from these same regions.

Is this a cause for concern? Well, if you are from Long Island, you cannot help but to notice the drop from 13.9% to 12.0% removing nearly 1/7th of the total. Could we be at the tipping point of the shift in regional representation?

On the flip side, New Jersey has seen growth in the same volume, percertage-wise.

Long Islanders and New Jersey residents should be very aware of this year's trend.

can you supply womens d1 numbers?

Don't these numbers look artificially low for Baltimore and Maryland? I would have assumed that Bmore/Md would have been closer to LI's percentages. Not based on any knowledge of the statistics, but just a gut feel. Would be interesting to audit these reported figures.

Regardless, Cage, your point is taken that LI (and other hotbeds) had best beware, because the sport is growing elsewhere.

BOTC does not have access to the database of players, commitments and hometowns which could allow us to do our own research for the women's game.

That said, I would be surprised if the trends were radically different. Should we see any such data emerge, we will share it.

Similarly, we call on the community to share any data points in the press that are published covering the WLAX Division I numbers.

The decline will be compounded by the "Power Programs" on long island trying to force kids to "Stay Home". The Towns that are attempting to restrict players will ultimately hurt their programs.

What about D2 and D3? Often they are far better academically anyway. Isn't that the goal here....education. Just my 2 cents.

Is this a cause for concern? Maybe. But, 13.9% of Div 1 players are from the area. This means that LI dominates the sport at the college level. I am sure there are ebbs and flows, just like with any statistic. The development of the club scene on Long Island will only further bolster our standing as the place for lax recruits. As the game grows nationally, it is a good thing that other areas in the US and Canada increase their recruitment into top level lacrosse. The game is only getting bigger. We should actually celebrate these numbers--unless u are a Baltimoron.

D2?? Maybe D3. That would be the logical 2nd choice if not recruited by a top D1

I wouldn't sound the alarms just yet for several reasons.

-It is not apples to apples - The comparison is full player population vs. a single freshman class. Better statistics would be to compare classes at points in time (eg. Class of 2013 as Freshmen vs Class of 2017 as Freshman). Different region's players are more likely to stick around on a lacrosse roster longer.

-The class of 2017 is unique in that there are several new programs outside the traditional LI collegiate interest area. For example Furman has 45 Freshmen on its' roster of 50+. This alone will muddy the statistics.

Typically, there are approximately 950 NCAA Division I spots on offer to a class in any given year based on the 67 institutions now playing Division I MLAX.

If there was a 1.9% decrease in Long Island's presentation in that pool, that translates to 18 offers. (950 x 0.019) In this sample, Long Island had 115 placed recruits in total.

BOTC would disagree with your assertion that the club scene will bolster these numbers in years to come. If you believe that club lacrosse is the lynchpin in player growth, note that we have had a well established club scene here for the last decade - so have New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Maryland. It is areas outside the traditional hotbeds that are now just growing their club scene.

So, if you are correct that the club scene will bolster numbers through training, it only serves to reason that non-hotbed areas will see continued growth at the expense of the traditional hotbeds.

This was obviously coming and should NOT be a surprise to anyone. As the sport grows throughout the country, the numbers in the areas where lax was less existent will increase and the areas where it was dominant will drop.

True, but the coaches here on Long Island are top notch. Between clubs and high school, the coaches here are the tops in the country. Many of the top D1 college coaches hail from the island.(Petro, Starsia, Tierney, Cassesse, etc.) More importantly, many of the O and Def. Coordinators are from the island. These are the guys that do a large part of the recruiting. Look at the number of D1 All Americans that come from here.
I have many teammates from college that are from Balt and Phila. and have talked to them about the club scenes, and Long Island gets it going at the club level earlier.
One year does not make it a trend.

Agreed, I am not sure id be to concerned with %. % can sometimes be misleading. I would be more interested in the "real" numbers these % represent. The numbers tell you the facts, % tell you a story.

I would also be interested to see in groups of 2 graduating years how many players from LI are in D1. Did the numbers of players go down or did the number of players go up (just not at the same rate as the rest of the country)?

The collegiate Class of 2017 (High School graduating Class of 2013) contained 115 Long Islanders attending NCAA Division I Lacrosse programs based on the data available. This represents an absolute drop of more than one dozen positions from the previous year.

That is a lot

Look at the numbers - really. Long Island still dominates.The ONLY increases are in NJ, Canada and Califrnia. CA is growing because the sport is growing in the west and this will continue as there is a huge population. Soccer is dominant out there and there is a lot of good young soccer talent that will be drawn to LAX as the sport grows. The trend in CA WILL contnue. As for Canada, it may just be that more colleges are starting to look at them versus just recruiting US players, this may also be a trend but I do not think the growth rate will contnue at the same rate over time.New Jersey - where is NJ???? I think the programs are picking up there on both the girls and boys side and think that they will have more dominant teams over the next several years. My guess is that they are made up of transplanted long islanders (just kidding). Long Island will drop slightly over time, but will always be very high on the list.

That is concerning, thanks for the info. Is there anyway to obtain the numbers from '17&'16 to '15&'14.

understanding there is ebbs and flows all the time, one year does not make a prediction.

Well if the sport continues to grow in California/Florida/ etc. they will win as they do in baseball/football etc.

All year playing weather you can't match that on LI or anywhere in the NE.

After having my kid do box lacrosse for a year, its obvious why the Canadian kids are on the increase, no comparison.

The most interesting part about that chart is that 30% of the players come from unidentified locales. FL is growing, as is TX, and the mid-west. They are not on the list.

The problem for LI is that wherever they play football well, you will eventually see college lacrosse players from those high school programs. The football coaches want lacrosse to keep those boys who can't hit a baseball running in the spring. And the football players and their parents are even happier, because the lighter, equally quick kids who are third on the depth chart at linebacker might be the best lacrosse players (and might be the better students who will appeal to more academically minded colleges). The "football factory" high schools can conceivably double the number of overall college recruits once their lacrosse programs become competitive, which only takes a couple of years (assuming they have the competition to play).

Which is why NJ is gaining. Big population, lots of excellent football programs. For example, the D1 football boys at Don Bosco and Bergen Catholic are still going to D1 football schools -- many of the others are being recruited for lacrosse.

You will most definitely see FL and TX on that list in the future.

Enter the free market. Perhaps more indoor facilities will open with better leagues. Yes its expensive overhead but the market will dictate in the end if this hotbed feel threatened.

I also think these non hotbed areas have become appealing to coaches to broaden the appeal of lacrosse. You have some former players out west starting club programs with connections to top D1 schools. Depending on the success of these non hotbed kids in college will determine if coaches continue to recruit from these areas.

But in reality the Long Island and Maryland kids still are the most talented in lacrosse. Maybe these non traditional areas might yield better athletes but when it comes to the game of lacrosse u can't touch the Long Island Maryland kids. It's my opinion. 5 to 10 yrs down the road those kids will still be those leading point leaders. I will add Pennsylvania and jersey too. But from what I see and here Long Island still has dominate youth teams that always do extremely well wherever they go. I'm originally from Long Island and live somewhere else now so I see the difference in talent. Good luck to everyone and their children on this lacrosse adventure!

Well after watching Hopkins/Ohio state seems the Canadian kids will be a hot commodity. Us kids better learn box

my understanding is that more and more colleges are picking up lax. How does this effect the numbers/ or does it ? Also, theres a term "coaching up". I heard many college coaches rather get a raw player. The thought is they can coach the kid up the first few years and at the end of the day he will be the better player

Not.

But coaches do often look for the best athletes.