BOTC - US Lacrosse Community Forum Forums MID-ATLANTIC LACROSSE MARYLAND FORUM Boys 2028 Grads - Mid Atlantic Region

I doubt 91 is Elite next year. 91 has had a pretty good spring so far. Been in every game and compete hard. Was beating first place Team MD through 3 quarters and was up by 3 in the 4th quarter and just collapsed defensively. 4A division is fun to watch. All 7 teams compete and most games are very close. HLC has not won a game, but has 3 one goal losses and tied 91. Playoffs will be interesting.

Serious question. How many players in Non-elite divisions will
Play college lacrosse. With understanding that HS stands in between. But how many will?

Rough math using the number of kids recruited to play D1 or high end D2/3 lax yearly, and number of recruits from Maryland each year, and with 160+ kids playing Elite currently.

Not my numbers, but seems reasonable (from 2020).


College Lacrosse Odds 2020: Male Female
Number of US High School Lacrosse Players 2019-20 121,011 106,162
Number of College Lacrosse Players (see table below) 16,841 13, 908
% of US HS Lacrosse Players competing at any College Level 13.5% 12.7%
% of US HS Lacrosse Players Competing at NCAA I Schools 2.9% 3.5%
Odds of a US HS Lacrosse Player making any College Roster 7:1 8:1
Odds of a US HS Lacrosse Player making an NCAA I Roster 35:1 28:1

As a Dad of boys in 2026, 2027, and 2028, I think this analysis is accurate. I am watching the landscape of 7th and 8th grade change before my eyes as families jockey to get on the right team for HS. In two years, DCE likely will be on par with MadLax and NextLevel, and its roster will be totally different than the current BLC 2028 team. If 2026 and 2027 is a guide, there will be plenty of movement among NextLevel, MadLax, and BLC/DCE, plus VLC. The bottom half of the roster of those four teams will be practically a revolving door of families chasing playing time, and in addition there will be more movement than you would guess of players on the top half of those rosters. Plus, there will be holdbacks coming into the class and there is little program loyalty; if a 2027 NextLevel player reclasses, he will not automatically go to NextLevel 2028, but rather he will shop among these four programs for the best fit based on position need and other factors. And, some of the players from those four programs (especially the re-classes) will consider Crabs and Hawks, if their parents can tolerate the drive. Trust me, all these teams will look different by 8th grade.

How many?How many will play college?
ANY that WANT to.
Regardless of talent level, club or hs. There is a program somewhere for anyone that wants to play college lacrosse.

Tons of players not currently in elite will play college lacrosse. But those players aren’t necessarily playing club at this point. Level of athleticism and size much better predictor than club level. High skill level elite kids that are marginal athletes tend to fade as kids get older. Puberty also obviously huge. But size and athleticism are way more important than skill level in projecting who play college.

The ML kid isn't even the tallest kid at 2028 so size is not the real issue. He is seriously skilled with both hands with a lefty shot that has to be in the 80 mph range and surprisingly fast for a big kid - guessing he's north of 150lb. Rumor is that he had 3 or 4 while playing up one game at that box tourney. If he leaves ML for Hawks let's all hope it's the Richmond one and not the Annapolis one.

Yes. FCA had 2 minute extra man late in game with chance to tie. FCA FOG won every time. NL goalie played very well. NL and FCA games are usually very close.

All of that is irrelevant.

91 plays in the elite division in every age bracket in HoCo except the 28s. Being good and winning isn’t the point. Elite is just how 91 rolls and they’ll be there next year.

Sorry, just no. He is not seriously skilled, has a no right at all and is hug and average speed for his age. Against kids that are a year or more younger he looks skilled. In 2 years post puberty he will look slow.

Imagine him against the 27 Hawks. No impact at all.

You are both correct.
The T91 corporate objective is to seem/appear/compete to be elite. Not to win....like you say. It is branding, as much as anything, and the easiest way to goose the rankings is to constantly play highly ranked (vs highly competitive but unranked) opponents. If you lose 9/10, who cares. T91 does a great job with this. Should it be their focus? That's a debate.

T91 2028 has shown zero ability to play elite this year or next year, but I'll tell you what they did do. They brought in a cellar-dweller AA coach and rec kids (Swarm) and despite that.......or because of it.........., they have been competitive in almost every game this year, vs. how they performed last year. It's a notable and very real improvement and whether it's coaching or player talent, who knows, but they are playing much better against the same teams who wiped them out last year. As some on BOTC like to say, it's an interesting data point in "how much difference is there between AA, AAA, AAA?" Maybe not much if you have the right coaches, the right lines working together, and a decent mix of talent.

There is still the "29-39 kids on roster" issue, and the upcoming annual showing of "the Texas kids" at tourneys, so we'll see how tryouts go in 3 months, I guess.

But I think anyone including the T91 haters (which sometimes includes myself) has to admit in the last 90 days, their 2028 squad is looking like it is meeting their goals. Whatever you think of those goals.

yes. to your point, I was surprised this spring to see D3 programs actively advertising spots on the roster. Usually at specific positions, but still. Call the Athletics office to fast track your academic application, etc. There is opportunity everywhere, especially if your student athlete is geographically flexible. Schools all over the country would be happy to feature a player from Severna Park, Boys Latin, John Carroll and everywhere inbetween in the DC-Baltimore vortex.

I’d rather see Hawks ML NL and FCA play each other twice than play the likes of KP and BLC

Look KP did the right thing. They won their division last year so they went up. I would rather see that than a team playing down beating teams by 20 points.

The question is what happens to KP next year. As parents try to jockey for hs the better kids will migrate to the designer name brand clubs.

KP is also playing in MYLA this Spring. They lost to Blue Claws 6-5 and have close wins against other AAAA teams FCA White (7-4) and Forest Hill (4-3). They are a AAAA team that can't compete in Elite.

Moving to Elite from AAAA is the biggest jump a team will make, especially at this age. The problems/shortcomings are usually manifested in the offense--the defenses/goalkeeping at the elite level are head and shoulders above those in the lower divisions. The new teams in Elite usually have problems scoring. My son's elite team has scrimmaged Blue Claws and played KP in Hoco, those teams aren't terrible by any means, they definitely have some athletic and skilled players, but both teams' offenses weren't very threatening. It takes either exceptional coaching and/or an infusion of new talent at attack to survive in Elite, especially at this age when the players are starting to hit puberty and we're starting to see some size disparities.

I think that’s the point the original poster ws trying to make. Doesn’t help KP to get smoked by 10-15 by NL, ML, and Hawks. I know the kids from those teams don’t look forward to games that are going to get out of hand on the winning side either.

Sounds like the teams in AAAA are enjoying a very level playing field, very competitive games. That’s how kids get better.

Exactly and KP wouldn't beat AAAA teams this year by 20 goals either. As the poster stated above, they are 2-1 against AAAA teams in MYLA and all three games were close. Also, scores from last year in AAA:

KP 14 - HLC 4
KP 6 - Blue Claws 7
KP 8 - HOCO Pink 2
KP 6 - Forest Hill 1
KP 7 - Cannons 4
KP 11 - Hawks Black 6

So what’s this say about true Annapolis

Well, they lost to KP and will be the cellar dweller in Elite. They should move down also.

KP, True Annapolis, and BLC would obviously do well in AAAA but the games would be close and they all would lose games. Hawks, FCA, Mad Lax, Next Level, and Crabs are just on another level when compared to AAAA teams.

What probably needs to happen is about 10-12 of the teams in HoCo (across all divisions) need to contract/merge. There are several good players buried on terrible clubs who’d stand to develop a lot more someplace else. This would also restock the rec ranks because that’s where a lot of these kids should be playing. And there is nothing at all wrong with that. It would improve the experience for everyone all the way around.

Cept of course for the pay to play club directors being paid handsomely.

Couldn't agree more. A lot of these Elite teams are not looking for kids. If you were to take the top kids from KP, FCA White, 91 and Predators you would probably have a solid Elite team. These teams are also relative to each other. The bottom 10-12 kids on these teams are probably A, AA or even rec players hurting the top players performance. But then again it's a money thing with these clubs.

Thanks Preds dad.

Will Rock or Koopers have teams at 2028 next year?

Koopers will try. They almost pulled it off this year (2028 roster size and dedicated coach were not a sure thing until it was too late). Not sure if their lease of St Pauls fields extends to next year. Koopers has been fairly successful doing what T91 2028 did this year - grabbing a successful rec-club coach to bring a core of rec kids over and get a good thing going at a new club.

As for Rock, I thought they never have teams below 9th grade. But could be bad info on my end.

Consolidating those teams wouldn’t actually do all that much to improve performance. It’s the top 4-5 players on NL, Hawks, etc. that separate them out. If you moved the Hawks goalie, FO, and top 2 offensive players to KP that team would finish no worse than fourth and likely higher in elite. Same thing if you gave BLC, the NL goalie, FO, and top 2 offensive players. But if you gave KP or BLC the entire rosters of Blue Claws, FCA White, and 91, they’d have more depth but would be marginally better if at all. People don’t want to admit it, but only a handful of kids on any elite team is an actual difference maker.

Correct. There are many contributors who are good players. There are 1-4 players per team who are difference makers.

The good thing is that as puberty sets in, the kids that are, or have been, the difference makers will change. That’s another reality people don’t like to admit.

Some of the kids will be 6-4 and 200 pounds plus, some will be 5-6 and 145. It’s a huge advantage, not to say there aren’t smaller guys who dominate (Chris Gray, Matt Rambo) but there are a lot more Pat Spencer’s than Chris Grays.

I am not sure what you are talking about. Team 91 is horrible in this age group. The "Successful" rec coach only won one game last year and might win 2 this year.

it is a shame that you think it is OK to destroy one team to put together another marginally horrible team. Team 91 is a place for kids to go when no other team will take them.

He switched to blc he hasnt been very helpful they thought he would be the big man but he doesnt know the ropes of being a pole

ML DMV GETTING SMOKED BY NL RED CALLING IT IT'S GONNA BE LIKE THE ELITE GAME ALL OVER AGAIN!!!!!!

Another poster with “91 deranged syndrome.” Find another hobby. I’m sure bashing 6th graders is fun for you but I know you can find something else to do with your time. Or maybe you can’t.

So top 4 teams in each division make playoffs? I heard there may be a play-in game in 1 or 2 divisions. Anyone know which ones.

There’s only a play in game in divisions with an odd number of teams. So if you have 9, there is a play in between 4 and 5 seed. But if you have an even number then just top 8 for the playoffs.

For elite playoffs are basically already determined. hawks will be # 1 seed since even if they lost they have the tie breaker with NL (head to head win). NL will be the 2 seed win or lose since they have the tie breaker with Madlax. Madlax will be the three seed win or lose since it would have tie breakers against Crabs and FCA in the event of a loss. As long as FCA wins against BLC they will be the 4 seed since they have the tie breaker with crabs (even if crabs somehow beat hawks). Crabs could get the 4 seed if (1) they beat Hawks and (2) BLC beats FCA. Not a likely scenario to say the least.

So it will be Hawks v. FCA and Madlax v. NL in the semi finals.

(poster above). To be clear, I think 91 is a huge con and I enjoy their ridiculousness. I'm guessing you are a Swarm or Koopers dad (both 2028s hemmoraged players to 91 this fall). In your shoes, T91 is probably not humerous at all. OK I get that.

It can't be said that 2028 T91 hasn't improved. They were horrible at old AAA/new AAAA last year, and now they are "competitive but losing" at the same level. I would be happier if they were horrible. They are not. It's not very complicated. They one 1 game at this level last year, and they've won 3 this year.

Who cares what I think is OK? The way clubs are run, from Madlax to True, is garbage and we all know it. If you know the personalities of lax club directors and the personalities of many head coaches........certainly the ones with a social media presence.......you must know that both are almost always looking for "what's next." And it's not just club. The average NCAA lax coach has a 3 year tenure. How do you tell them to not take opportunities? And guess what, many of those dudes take players with them!

Weekend Predictions:

Hawks 13 Crabs 7
FCA 9 BLC 2
Madlax 14 KP 1
NL 12 True 4

Hawks 12 Crabs 2
BLC 7 FCA 6
Madlax 10 KP 0
NL 15 True 4

Thanks NL dad. You seem objective.